How long can the pig on the tuyere fly

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Steel prices soared! How long can the "pig on the tuyere" fly

last week, steel prices rose sharply, and the spot price of rebar increased by 500 yuan/ton. At the same time, black variety contracts and steel stocks also performed prominently in the commodity and A-share markets

the current soaring continues. According to the news, the quotation of steel billets in Tangshan market, known as "Wall Street of steel market", has increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3940 yuan/ton in recent two days. The coke enterprises in the upstream of the steel plant also significantly increased the ex factory price

some insiders have made deformed steel bars and plate coils PS the color of gold, and lamented the sudden profits of steel mills by changing "steel bars" into "steel gold". There are different views on whether the windfall profits can be sustained and whether the raw material price can benefit

"After more than six years, today's steel index returned to above 5000 points for the first time, a new high since June 13, 2011. Qiu Yuecheng, chief researcher and director of the steel PMI research center of the China IOT steel logistics special committee, said in an interview with Shanghai Securities News on the 1st that the relationship between supply and demand is the core of price. Recently, the operating rate of steel strip enterprises in Tangshan has remained at about 66%, the operating rate of profile billet enterprises has increased by about 10% to 36%, and the operating rate of building material billet enterprises has started The rate fell by about 2% to 25%, and the delivery volume of billets can only meet the local demand of 60% to 70%, and the resource supply is still tight. In the situation of low production and low inventory, the domestic steel market has continued to rise sharply recently

the latest research report of Zhongtai steel new materials believes that the sharp rise in steel prices is inseparable from market sentiment. The rise in spot prices, combined with high trading volume and low inventory, is imminent. If key cities strictly implement environmental protection and production restriction in the later stage, steel prices are expected to remain strong in the short term under low inventory

according to the current raw materials and processing costs, the production cost of rebar is about 2167 yuan/ton. After soaring, the price of rebar broke through 4800 yuan/ton last Friday. Wangtieshan, a senior analyst at Nanhua futures, told that as a result of the previous decline in raw material prices, the cost per ton of steel has fallen by 500 yuan since September. After October, the gross profit rate per ton of steel in steel mills soared from 30% to more than 50%

Qiu Yuecheng told that after the rare increase in domestic steel prices in history, the market mentality tends to be entangled. On the one hand, there is a shortage of resources and specifications, and the price of steel mills has risen sharply. On the other hand, the sharp rise in steel prices in the short term has led end users to generally turn to wait-and-see, and the trading volume is shrinking day by day. Some businesses may consider short-term profit cashing out due to the considerable resource profits in their hands, resulting in price loosening

"however, due to industry experience, many people do not think that the myth of huge profits in the steel industry can continue. At present, there are differences in the judgment of the future market in the industry." Wang Tieshan said that at present, the core lies in the implementation of the production restriction policy. No matter how high the steel price is and how thick the profit of the steel plant is, if the steel output cannot come out, the supply will continue to be less than the demand. Although the demand for steel raw materials has declined, it is difficult for the spot to fall in the case of steel mills' huge profits, and the futures will rise sharply under the guiding ideology of shorting steel mills' profits

previously, there were many views that after the implementation of the production restriction policy in winter, the demand for steel raw materials will decrease and the price will remain depressed. According to the latest disclosure of Fenwei energy metallurgical coal analysts, driven by the recent rise of coke and the situation of winter storage and replenishment, the tightening of production resources has led to the stabilization and exploratory rise of coal prices. Local coke mines such as Linfen, Luliang and Jinzhong also saw an increase of 20 to 70 yuan/ton

everyone knows

a person from a coking coal production enterprise told the Shanghai Securities News that there is a big discrepancy between the judgment of the impact of peak staggering and limited production in the heating season, including some market researchers, and the actual situation. For example, Taiyuan recently issued an orange warning for heavily polluted weather, which actually has a direct impact on all links of coal mining, coal washing and shipping of local coal enterprises. At the same time, in the case of extremely high profits of the steel plant, the output is limited or less than expected, and it is believed that the prices of coking coal, coke and other raw materials also have strong support

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