How long can the long lost market of the hottest m

How long can the long lost market of Guangdong methanol last?

how long can the long lost market of Guangdong methanol last?

August 31, 2016

[China paint information] under the influence of factors such as the reduction of supply side and the relative concentration of supply sources, since last Wednesday, Guangdong methanol market has launched a strong rally, breaking the consolidation trend that has lasted for nearly two months since early July. And with the weakening of the mainland market and the lingering tepid market in East China, the long lost market of "outshining others" in Guangdong is particularly "bright" in the domestic methanol market

since last Wednesday (August 24), the methanol market in Guangdong has launched a strong rally, breaking the consolidation trend that has been maintained for nearly two months since the beginning of July. Moreover, with the weakening of the mainland market and the lingering lukewarm market in East China, the long lost market of "outshining others" in Guangdong is particularly "bright" in the domestic methanol market

according to the data of treasure island, as of Monday (August 28), the outflow tank price of the landlord rose to yuan/ton, up yuan/ton from the same period last week, and some offers in Dongguan were slightly higher than 1940 yuan/ton. And in the second half of last week, stimulated by the replenishment of the industry, the overall trading atmosphere was good

investigate the reason behind its rising market this time - the supply side shrinkage and clamping down is the most obvious

CNOOC chemical plant unexpectedly shut down the whole line, reducing the supply of Guangdong and Guangdong

it is understood that the methanol plant with an annual output of 800000 tons of CNOOC chemical 2# was shut down for maintenance in mid August, and the original plan was to shut down for 10 days; However, due to the high-speed impact, the annual output has attracted significant attention in the aerospace and military fields. The 600000 ton 1# line stopped unexpectedly last Tuesday, and the specific restart time is to be determined; At present, both units are in shutdown condition. In addition, the overall saleable volume of its Guangdong and Guangxi trade agents is relatively limited, and some merchants have stopped selling light warehouses for a few days; This also led to some end customers flowing into peripheral procurement

Guangdong's methanol imports decreased month on month in August

customs data show that China's total methanol imports in July 2016 were about 894000 tons, a decrease of 7483 tons compared with June. Among them, the import volume of Guangdong was 167000 tons, accounting for 18.7%, which increased by 4.3% compared with the total proportion of 14.4% in June. However, based on the closing of China US arbitrage in the third quarter and the impact of the G20 summit, Jinyin Island preliminarily expects that domestic methanol imports will continue to shrink in August; Among them, Guangdong's imports in August were conservatively estimated at 10000 tons

based on the above reasons, since the beginning of August, the total inventory of methanol in Guangdong has declined steadily. As of the 26th, the total inventory in Guangdong was 154000 tons, 56000 tons lower than the end of July, a decrease of 26.7%

in addition, in addition to the impact of supply side shrinkage on the market, the current concentration of goods in Guangdong is high, and some first-hand traders collectively control the market due to the impact of costs, which also has a good effect on the rise of the market. In addition, the end of the month coincided with the delivery of paper goods. Based on the small spot volume of some retail investors, the market pressure atmosphere also "ignited" again to push up enthusiasm

then, based on the weak demand fundamentals, how long can this band push up the market

the current round of unilateral push up market of Guangdong methanol has changed its technical parameters in the downstream: the view of zbc1400 is limited, the end of paper delivery at the end of the month and the continuous downward trend of futures and other biased factors can be maintained for a relatively limited time under the action of uniform and continuous loading of factors in the experimental process. As of noon on Monday, it was understood that the follow-up of actual orders of 1930 yuan/ton in the region was still insufficient, and the buying was mainly on the sidelines for the time being; It is preliminarily expected that Guangdong methanol may maintain a relatively high consolidation pattern by the end of August, but the breakthrough of important passes is weak. In addition, the late import arrival, futures delivery in recent months and the traditional downstream recovery need to be closely watched